According to traditional 3-way football betting a punter has a 33,33% possibility of winning, by choosing a home win, an away win or a draw. How would you feel if you were to double this possibility? Having a 66,66% chance of winning at football betting looks extremely tempting, even if these numbers exist only in theory.
That’s exactly what double chance betting is about: Betting on two of three possible outcomes on a football match and winning the same amount of money in each result. You can bet on a team to win or draw (1X or X2) or place a bet on either team to win and exclude the draw (12).
Of course, a double chance bet offers lower odds compared to 3-way betting, usually half of both 3-way odds combined. Regardless, it’s a popular bet type, offered by all online bookmakers, usually coming first on the list of “special bets” apart from original 1X2 odds. That’s because it’s valuable for two major categories of football bettors: The ones looking for great favorites and the ones who place bets on underdogs.
How to place the perfect double chance football bet
Whether you are looking for favorites or underdogs, the cause remains the same: Safety. It’s a matter of personal belief than actual chance: A bettor thinks it’s safe to place a much higher bet on a double chance outcome knowing that he’s “covering” two of three results. It’s considered a bet type for high rollers, as the odds are much lower, but this isn’t exactly true. In fact, anyone can place a perfect double chance bet, as soon as he finds valueable odds.
Let’s have a look at both ways separately:
- Favorites: In this case a bettor decides to place a double chance bet if, according to his analysis, there’s a strong possibility of a draw apart from his desirable team to win. By placing a bet on a favorite double chance you accept far lower odds (in some chances slighter than 1.30), but you know you’ll get all your winnings if the favorite simply avoids defeat.
So, if your analysis excludes the underdog win completely, double chance football betting is an ideal way to bet. It’s worthy too if for some reason the draw is an absolutely undesirable result (for example, when two teams are playing their last fixture, knowing that in case of a draw they’re both eliminated or relegated).
- Underdogs: This is a more popular way, as the double chance odds on the underdog are much higher, in some cases even exceeding the favorite’s offered odds. In this case double chance is chosen by bettors, who’re feeling comforted by the “two outcome” coverage, as they’re not so sure about the underdog’s ability to win, especially at an away tie. This way they just exclude the favorite’s win and don’t bother if the underdog wins. They’re also not bothered with a late equalizer, which is more common when backing an underdog that managed to score first.
Double chance betting on the underdog is almost the same as a +0,5 (or +1/2, as often written) Asian Handicap betting. Both types are offering the same amount of winnings from two outcomes, but if an online bookmaker offers double chance betting and an Asian Handicap on the same match, you might notice a slight difference in odds. Usually the Asian Handicap odds are a little higher. That’s because of the vig, as in Asian Handicap betting the bookmakers commission is far lower than in 3-way betting.
Common double chance football bet misconceptions
Although double chance betting is one of the most popular you can find on a match betting list, there are often misconceptions about the exact worth of this bet type and why you should choose it.
Double chance is designed for high rollers: A common mistake, usually made by bettors who are trying to get rich in a month from betting and they’re judging everything based on the offered odds. In fact, double chance betting is for every bettor who is not in a hurry to increase his bankroll. If you have a high winning percentage of double chance bets, it doesn’t really matter how much you’ll place each time. Remember, winning three single double chance bets of 1.33 odds is exactly the same as winning a single 1X2 bet on 2.00 odds.
It’s more difficult to identify value: That’s a straight out lie. The procedure of identifying if there’s a value and judging if it’s worthy to bet has the same level of difficulty as every other bet. We might say that in double chance betting case the value is more obvious, as the common numbers (wins, total goals etc.) offer more information.
It’s easier to be drifted on higher bets due to safety: This is a personal matter rather than an inherent problem of double chance betting. One bettor could place more money on a bet when he feels safe about the result, regardless of the type. Of course, it’s easier to decide placing a double chance bet on an underdog instead of only backing it to win. Of course it’s easier for him to decide placing more money to this bet than he would on the underdog, but the chances of winning are far better too.
You need a higher winning percentage: This is just miscalculation. It’s a matter of chance over odds. For example, when your average winning odds of double chance betting is 1.33, you need a 67% winning percentage to keep a positive balance. The higher the average odds are, the lower the winning percentage needed to gain profit in the long term.
Double chance accumulator. Is it worth it?
You can also place double chance accumulator bets. That’s a type of betting not so common among tipsters, as they think that it’s either less worthy (when they choose favorites) or too risky (when they choose underdogs) when placing accumulator bets.
Double chance accumulators are worthy as long as they’re successful. If you can find three double chances of 1.26 each and place them in one triple accumulator bet, it’s the same as placing a single even (2.00) bet. If you feel safer betting on more matches than one, then there is actually no difference.
When backing underdogs, double chance betting numbers favor you, at least theoretically. Why is that? When you place a double chance bet, in theory you have 66,6% winning chances. In case of a double accumulator bet of double chances, your theoretical chances are reduced to 44,4% and in case of a triple bet of double chances there’s an additional reduction to 29,57%.
Betting on 1.70 average double chance odds, means you’ve got a nearly 30% chances of getting five times your money. It’s really worthy, but we have to mention once more that these chances are theoretical only. In most matches the active winning chances of a “double chance” bet are far lower. That’s why you have to be extremely careful when choosing a parlay bet of double chances.